Page 109 - Ebook HTKH 2024

technology, and fund energy projects, which in turn increases the non-performing loans
rate. On the other hand, some studies suggest a negative correlation, indicating that

increasing loans can significantly reduce CO2 emissions in the medium to long term
(Bachegour & Qafas, 2023).
In Vietnam, there is currently no research on the relationship between CO2 and
non-performing loans. However, the study of (Bui et al., 2024) has shown that Vietnam's
economic growth focuses on industrialization, modernization, and integration with the
global market, creating a positive impact on GDP but at the same time causing a negative
impact on the environment, especially increasing the annual CO2 emission rate. After
considering the context in Vietnam, reducing CO2 emissions is a trade-off with general

economic benefits. Therefore, the authors focus on the most important hypothesis:
H1: CO2 emissions have a negative impact on NPL.
Other factors also considered include credit growth rate (LGR), economic growth
rate (GDP), and inflation rate (INF). For more detail, regarding credit growth rate
(LGR), Empirical research shows that credit growth rate has a positive impact on the
NPLs rate (Nguyen et al., 2020; Salas & Saurina, 2002). Credit growth is used to

increase the growth rate of NPLs; however, rapid and uncontrolled credit growth will
negatively affect the ability to manage quality risks, thereby increasing the bank's NPLs.
(Nguyen, 2024).
According to many studies, a country's economic growth rate (GDP) is a macro
factor that affects NPLs (Makri et al., 2014; Nguyen, 2015, 2017; Nguyen & Dinh, 2016;
Nguyen et al., 2018; Salas & Saurina, 2002). The relationship between economic growth
and NPLs is negative. GDP is a macro indicator to evaluate the economy's overall

growth rate. When the economy is in crisis, the financial situation of individuals and
businesses also faces many difficulties, reducing the ability to pay debts on time and
increasing the NPL rate. Moreover, the NPLs decreased due to improved personal and
business finances, creating favorable conditions for repaying debts on time (Nguyen,
2024).
Inflation rate (INF) affects the ability of businesses to repay loans, therefore NPLs

increased at banks (Klein, 2013, 2013; Nguyen, 2015, 2017; Nguyen et al., 2018).
Inflation, a factor that directly affects market prices of goods, has a profound impact on
all economic activities, including bank credit activities. A high inflation rate can lead to
significant price fluctuations, creating an economic background of instability. This
situation can result in increased deposit and lending interest rates, reducing the debt
repayment ability of individuals and businesses. (Nguyen, 2024).
3. Methods and models
3.1. Research models
In this article, a model based on the foundations inherited from previous authors'
documents and research articles was built to exploit overdue loans gradually, which is

explained by two groups of factors: internal bank factors and macroeconomic factors.
The general regression equation has the form:

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