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Table 9. VEC Residual Heteroskedasticity Tests
Joint test:

Chi-sq df Prob.

165.7897 180 0.7686

Source: Research results from Eview 10
The test results in Table 9 show that there is no evidence of Heteroskedasticity in
the model
- Shock transmission and variance decomposition mechanisms:
Table 10. Variance Decomposition using Cholesky (d.f.adjusted) Factors
Variance Decomposition of D(LGDP):
Period S.E. D(LGDP) D(LFDI) D(LLB) D(LINN)

1 0.007897 100.0000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000
2 0.008837 98.34979 0.080220 0.841705 0.728282
3 0.009196 97.59909 0.873645 0.790689 0.736573
4 0.010313 96.93140 0.853265 1.430623 0.784714
5 0.011054 96.82685 0.888097 1.262374 1.022684
6 0.011440 96.12920 1.018176 1.354961 1.497665
7 0.011900 96.31398 0.963527 1.253849 1.468642
8 0.012558 96.62635 0.916209 1.128177 1.329267
9 0.013114 96.87940 0.845801 1.037263 1.237538
10 0.013541 96.99368 0.793849 0.995185 1.217286
Source: Research results from Eview 10
The results of the variance decay of D(LGDP) show that over the entire forecast
period, much of the fluctuation of GDP growth is explained by itself, with rates ranging
from about 96% to 100%. Meanwhile, the variables D(LFDI), D(LLB) and D(LINN)
contribute only a small percentage to the volatility of D(LGDP). Notably, the D variable
(LINN) represents innovation that only explains about 0.7% to 1.5% of the fluctuations in
GDP growth. This result shows that the role of innovation in the model is quite limited.
Furthermore, since the LINN variable is not statistically significant in the VECM model,
there is insufficient evidence to confirm that innovation has a significant impact on EG
during the study period.
5. Conclusion
In the context of increasing global economic volatility, intensifying strategic
competition among major economies, and the deep restructuring of global supply chains,
Vietnam faces an urgent need to transform its growth model. The traditional
development model, which has largely relied on natural resource exploitation, low-cost
labour, and capital expansion, has revealed significant limitations in terms of productivity,
quality, and long-term sustainability. At the same time, the rapid advancement of artificial
intelligence (AI), big data, and digital technologies is fundamentally reshaping production
systems and market structures, generating new competitive pressures while also creating
opportunities for upgrading Vietnam’s position in global value chains. Through the

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