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effects of digitalization and integration are stronger in regions with higher institutional
quality.
Data Sources: Treasury and Budget Management Information System (TABMIS), public
investment information systems, e-procurement databases, State Audit Office reports.
Analytical Methods: Multivariate regression, hierarchical linear modeling, or
structural equation modeling to evaluate moderator effects.
(2) Case Study and Simulation Approach: Select a representative portfolio of
projects (transport, digital transformation). Build a digital project lifecycle dataset by
integrating ST, procurement, and implementation data. Apply anomaly detection
algorithms (e.g., Isolation Forest) to simulate risk detection. Use machine learning-based
risk scoring to classify projects according to the likelihood of delays or cost overruns.
Perform what-if simulations to evaluate how changes in digitalization or data integration
affect oversight efficiency.
Methodological Integration: By combining these approaches, the study achieves a
robust methodological framework that: Provides a thorough understanding of the
institutional and legal context. Utilizes empirical evidence from secondary data and
international experiences. Tests hypotheses through quantitative modeling and
simulation. Develops a Smart PFM framework that leverages Big Data Governance,
Predictive Analytics, and AI for Public Accountability to enable real-time, data-driven
monitoring, early risk detection, and enhanced accountability in public investment
management. To ensure consistency and comparability, all variables and indicators used
in the empirical and simulation models are standardized in terms of definitions, units of
measurement, and data sources. This standardization enhances the robustness and
replicability of the proposed Smart PFM framework.
3. Results and discussion
3.1. Current status of public investment expenditure management in Vietnam
during the period 2021-2025
During the 2021–2025 period, PIE financed by the ST continued to be identified as
one of the key pillars of fiscal policy, serving both to promote economic growth and to
ensure macroeconomic stability in this setting post-COVID-19 recovery and increasing
global economic uncertainty. According to consolidated data from the MOF and ST
reports, the scale of PIE remained at a high level, accounting for approximately 26–32% of
total state budget expenditure annually, equivalent to around 6–7% of GDP.
Specifically, in 2021, total state budget expenditure reached VND 1,747 trillion, of
which PIE amounted to VND 456 trillion (26% of total expenditure, equivalent to nearly
6% of GDP); the disbursement rate reached approximately 95% of the plan. In 2022, total
state budget expenditure was VND 1,750 trillion, with public investment exceeding VND
480 trillion (27.5% of total expenditure), and the disbursement rate remained at around
91%. In 2023, total state budget expenditure reached VND 2,076 trillion; PIE amounted to
VND 662 trillion (32% of total expenditure), with the disbursement rate continuing at
approximately 93%. In 2024, total state budget expenditure was VND 1,830 trillion, of
which PIE was VND 578 trillion, accounting for 31% of total expenditure. By 2025, the final
year of the 2021–2025 Medium-Term Public Investment Plan, total state budget
expenditure reached VND 2,401 trillion, of which PIE amounted to VND 694 trillion,
representing 29% of total expenditure.

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